This is the ninth article in the Behavioral Finance and Macroeconomics series, exploring the effect behavior has on markets and the economy as a whole and how advisors who understand this relationship ...

Recency bias is the tendency for people to overweight new information or events, projecting them into the future while ignoring long-term evidence. This bias causes many investors to engage in ...

Currently, Polymarket traders only give Bitcoin a 12% chance of hitting $150,000 this year. Due to recency bias, traders are likely to underestimate Bitcoin's future upside potential. While prediction ...

Every macro crisis in travel produces the same confident obituary, and almost every obituary turns out to be wrong. I have been thinking about recency bias a lot lately — March 2026 feels a lot like ...

Last week, I introduced the idea of “dumb” in investing: the tendency for very smart people to do very dumb things with their portfolios. We looked at how emotions can override a well-thought-out plan ...

Buying after periods of strong performance (when valuations are higher and expected returns are now lower) and selling after periods of poor performance (when valuations are lower and expected returns ...